Trouble in the Koreas; Trouble for Us

Since the weekend, two major problems occurred in or around the Korean peninsula. On Sunday morning, North Korea tested a possible Inter Continental Ballistic Missile. Many are saying that this missile may be the first Korean nuclear delivery system that can reach the Continental United States. To complicate things, On Monday a North Korean male died in Malaysia. Later, it was determined that the North Korean man was Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un’s half-brother. North Korea is a country that is extremely locked down, so we do not know much about the relationship between the two, or if Kim Jong-un will have some type of childlike fit over this, but these two events mean trouble for President Donald Trump. The power dynamic of Asia is flimsy, and the last thing anyone wants is militarily active North Korea.

North Korea has relatively no power, no money, and no friends in the international system, but acts as though they are a global super power. They experience the strength of having absolutely nothing to lose and no one to answer to. While the rest of the world worries about how other nations and the UN will react to their actions, North Korea knows they are able to get away with almost anything they want. Why is that? Their power comes from the strength of geopolitics, a term that means how geography effects political decisions. North Korea is, for them, strategically placed in between the largest communist country with the highest population in the world, China, and the democratic South Korea, which is supported by the most powerful country in the world, the United States of America.

Make no mistake, despite the end of the cold war being over 25 years ago, the ideological battle between democracy and despotism is still very much alive. Kim Jong-un is crazy but not dumb, and he knows this potential conflict exists. Because of this, America’s hands are tied in dealing with them. Let’s assume North Korea acts aggressively towards the United States, or its ally South Korea. It is naturally in the interest of the United States to hold off the spread of a despot like Kim Jong-un. Of course, the U.S. is extremely superior in military technology, ability, forces, and strategy. The U.S. military can outspend and steam roll the North Korean military in a matter of weeks. So yeah let’s do it, let’s go wreck them! No! The last thing China wants is a democratic power involved in a country that lies on their border. The mere presence of a strong democracy in a close distance marks death for a communist state. The people see how good the free country has it and want that. China will do anything to avoid that from happening, including take up arms. It almost happened in the Korean War, and is going to happen again.

One can only pray to God that President Trump is aware of this dynamic. To his credit, he has some very intelligent advisors, including the warrior monk Mad Dog Mattis; however, this would be Trumps first real introduction to the world of international relations, so there is no precedent to how he will react. One can only look to his words on the campaign trail, that point to being unpredictable and hawkish. The first conflict in his first foray into the cruel world of global politics is not a simple one. This issue is extremely complex, and requires very cautious action, which means that we should all ban together and support him to make good judgement. North Korea is a powder keg, that could explode at any minute. We don’t want to be there when it does.