The Phillies' Future Is Murky
Pat Gillick said the Phillies will not contend until 2017, however they are about to start the 2017 season and the Phillies are not prepared to contend. There is two reasons to be pessimistic: first, the Kansas City Royals had 24 straight seasons without reaching the postseason and only had a winning record in five of those seasons with all-star players. Second, the Pittsburgh Pirates had 20 straight seasons without a postseason berth or a winning record also with all-star players.
The Royals had Carlos Beltran, Zack Greinke, Raul Ibanez, Mike Sweeney, Alex Gordon, and Billy Butler. The Pirates had Jason Bay, Aramis Ramirez, Jason Kendall, Brian Giles, and Freddy Sanchez, to name a few. Even though they produced a number of all star caliber players, they could not sustain success. Why is that? The answer lies in the lack of pitching both in the form of aces and depth.
The Phillies have exactly what the Pirates and Royals did not have in their long stretch of losing, which is potential aces and pitching depth. Aaron Nola, Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Mark Appel, Vincent Velazquez, and Zach Eflin all but Appel made an appearnace in the majors last year. On top of the pitchers, the Phillies boast highly touted position players like the Royals and Pirates did. These players include Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Mickey Moniak, JP Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, and Nick Williams.
Phillies' fans should be excited, however, with Franco’s hot and cold stretches, Nola’s injury, and Herrera’s constant mental mistakes they could easily take a step back. The rest of Phillies’ highly touted position players and pitchers are still only prospects.
The Phillies have four prospects in the top 100, including Crawford, Moniak, Alfaro, and Sixto Sanchez, this is three less than the Phillies had in 2016. While fans expect these players to be all stars, that may not be the case. In an article written by Scott McKinney for the Royals Review, McKinney looked at the top 100 prospects from 1990-2003 and how they graded as players. He used WAR to calculate whether they were a bust, a success, or a superior. If a player had a 1.49 WAR or lower they were considered a bust, if their WAR was 1.50-2.49 they were considered a success, and if their WAR was 2.50 and higher they were considered superior. You can argue the WAR is too low or too high, but I think it is a fair range to put things in perspective. Some lifetime WAR averages show Mike Trout at 8.1, Jayson Werth at 2.12, and John Mayberry at 0.1. As you can see the WAR matches up with Trout being superior, Werth being a success, and Mayberry a bust.
McKinney broke down the percentage of each prospect’s chance at being a bust, success, or superior based on their ranking. He put the 100 prospects in 10 groups: 1-10, 11-20, etc., and they differ for position players and pitchers. First I will look at position players. To see the graphs on the percentage of chance prospects becoming busts, successes, or superior in terms of position and ranking check out McKinney's article.
I will use the Phillies four top 100 prospects and apply the percentages. Ranks for position players and pitchers differ, mainly seeing pitchers more prone to becoming a bust. First is JP Crawford who ranks 12th overall. He has a 40.8% chance at being a bust, 59.3% chance at success, and a 39.5% chance at being superior according to his rank. According to his position, shortstop, he has a 69.3% chance at being a bust, 30.6% chance at success, and a 21.1% chance at being superior. Second is Mickey Moniak who ranks 17th, and sees the same percentages as Crawford. However, according to position, outfielder, Moniak has a 64.7% chance at being a bust, 35.2% chance at success, and a 26.2% chance at being superior. Third is Jorge Alfaro who is ranked 41th overall, he has a 68% chance at being a bust, 32.1% chance at success, and 16.7% chance at being superior. His position, catcher, has a 57.0% chance at being a bust, 43.1% chance at success, and a 16.7% chance at being superior. Fourth is Sanchez who ranks 80th, he has a 70.3% chance at being a bust, a 29.9% chance at success, and a 23.1% chance at being superior. His position, right-handed pitcher, gives him a 77.7% chance at being a bust, 23.3% chance at success, and a 10.7% chance at being superior.
What do these percentages mean? For some it may mean nothing, and for some it may mean a lot. However, the percentages only apply if the prospects made the majors and their WAR is total throughout playing career. Thompson, Roman Quinn, Alfaro made both the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list in 2016 and the majors, Quinn was the only one with a positive WAR with 0.2. Each player needs time to develop obviously and showed flashes. However, seeing players like Crawford, Appel, Thompson, Williams, Cornelius Randolph and Andrew Knapp all fall to a lower ranking or out of the top 100 is cause for concern. Pitchers also have higher chance of busting. Therefore, Matt Klentak’s strategy of stockpiling pitchers gives the Phillies a cushion.
The future is unknown and top 100 prospects can turn into Dom Brown or Mike Trout, and unranked prospects could turn into Robinson Cano or just another nobody. Phillies’ fans, like myself, are not at fault for assuming our top 100 prospects are going to lead us to World Series Championships. Fans should hope the Phillies avoid the old ways of the Royals and Pirates where they only grew all stars through the system but not nearly enough to contend. However, the Phillies have money to spend and will do so when they have a core intact. Ultimately the hope is these prospects will provide the core. If they do not the Phillies may be wallowing in mediocrity for longer than any fan can handle.
Tim Hofmeister is a senior at DeSales University and a rugby player. He is a Philadelphia product and a die-hard fan of all the Philadelphia teams and The University of Notre Dame. Follow him on twitter @DontHassel_Hof